It's the Derby, Baby!

I love this time of year...even from 2000 miles away.

I remember looking forward to Derby Week as a child. Louisville was always a buzz when the Run for the Roses approached. Normal life was paused, and everyone hit Derby Mode. Living in Louisville only till I was seven, I was included in very few festivities...but I still loved every second of them.

I remember waking up early morning to watch the balloons float above our house for the annual balloon race. Then watching as "officials" handed out water for the tired runners at the Southern Parkway leg of the Kentucky Derby Festival Marathon. It was all very exciting for a 5 year old.

Now, living here in California, all I can really do to celebrate is make a little bet with myself on who just might win. Do I have a strategy? Well, of course! My grandfather, Pap-paw Jack, the King of Horse Racing, would have a heart attack if he knew my methods. Though most girls I know use the same one: I pick by what name is the most fun/unusual and which Silk is the prettiest. Okay, I'll admit it...I was also a bit partial to whoever had Pat Day as their jockey, but since he's retired that leaves me with beauty alone to pick a winner.

But before we get to my picks, let's talk about who's actually favored to win this year. From my random research, I've found that a lot of people are getting behind Brother Derek...he has the best odds of the bunch, too: 3-1. But then I found this: "In any other race he would be a deserving favorite, but his front-running style, favorable over California's speed ovals, is statistically a negative angle at the Kentucky Derby. " Hmmm...looks like we'll have to watch to see what happens there.

Looking through the current entrants, I'm a little bit sad about the names AND silks this year.

But if I had to pick one on name alone, I would go with

Seaside Retreat

Picking by silks alone, I choose:

Storm Treasure

But since I hate Storms, I'm gonna have to rule this one out. See...the name is important, too.

To really win, you have to pick the horse with the prettiest silks and the best name...okay, and looking at odds helps, too. I rarely pick the horse with the best odds...because I've rarely seen them win. And I'm stepping out of my comfort zone and I'm gonna check out the trainer, owner, jockey, and breeders...not in a conventional way...but in an Abbey sort of way.

So taking all of this into consideration (and so much more), here is my pick to win the 2006 Kentucky Derby:

Point Determined

Name: I don't know why...but it just struck me as interesting...it reminded me of a conversation and a tennis match all in one.

Silks: I'm liking the stripes...Always a fan.

Trainer: Bob Baffert, quite The Man in the Kentucky Derby...never hurts to go with a winner

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano, he currently lives in Louisville (a new KY boy); he watched races as a child (Ah, Cute!); he looks like an innocent little boy in his picture

Owners: Robert & Beverly Lewis, he recently passed away (so sad), but his wife is carrying on with this and the horse is actually owned by the Robert and Beverly Lewis Trust; Robert & Beverly met in San Francisco while both going to the University of Oregon and they married a year later (I find that very sweet, and I have personal connections to both SF and Oregon)

Breeders: Robert & Blythe Clay, they own Three Chimneys in Lexington, KY (Yea, Lexington! And beautiful horse farm); he is a native KY boy; went to William & Mary, the University of Kentucky, and Harvard (he is loyal to home, but is smart enough to go BIG!)

See...now none of that would make sense to the common Racing Enthusiast...but to me, it's how I pick a winner.